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Trump, Xi to Seek Stabilization Against Rising Geopolitical Tensions

  • May 8
  • 4 min read

By Matthew R. Miller and Judy Zhang, CorpBridge Advisors


U.S. President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing on May 14 for a 36-hour summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This is the first consequential meeting between the two leaders since last October in Busan, South Korea and is being held during a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, fraying supply chains, and mounting pressure to further securitize frontier technologies. The U.S. postponed the summit, initially scheduled for March, due to the war with Iran. 


Expectations remain low 

The most significant outcome of the talks may be signaling for continued dialogue and the importance of stabilizing ties. Both leaders will likely focus on maintaining constructive momentum and announcements about commercial arrangements are anticipated, with the U.S. focused on aircraft, agricultural products, access to rare earth materials, and managed trade. The U.S.-Iran conflict and opening the Strait of Hormuz also may be a priority, following the this week’s visit to Beijing by Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.


Discussions may also include U.S. actions to rebuild tariff schedules after the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs were ruled illegal. The issues of Taiwan, governance of artificial intelligence, and cross-border investment may also provide surprises.


The Road to Beijing

Since Presidents Trump and Xi met on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Busan, South Korea last October, the two administrations have taken measures to tactically de-escalate, particularly around commercial conflicts. In January, the U.S. Department of War (DOW), notably, revised the U.S. National Defense Strategy in 2026, identifying deterrence of China in the Indo-Pacific as the second strategic regional priority. In February, the DOW also withdrew an online posting of an updated sanction list of PRC companies aiding the Chinese military, which included tech firms Alibaba Group and Baidu Inc. and automaker BYD Co.

China moved forward with the Busan framework by suspending for one year export controls on gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten and graphite - critical minerals needed for semiconductors, explosives and ammunition, batteries and nuclear reactors. The government also named 13 fentanyl precursor chemicals to list requiring a license before export to the United States, Mexico and Canada. 

The U.S. operations of TikTok, the social media app, also restructured as a joint venture with the backing of the American and Chinese governments.


Material tensions persist in the runup to the summit, however, with each government introducing measures and retaliatory actions that exacerbate long-standing antagonisms and target transformational technologies.

China, notably, has bolstered its regulatory toolkit in response to foreign sanctions and export controls, as well as to protect its native technology ecosystem. The State Council in recent weeks introduced two significant regulations to counter foreign sanctions and other perceived anti-China measures. The rules provide government agencies new powers to investigate foreign firms, overseas governments and individuals accused of discriminating against Chinese industry and their supply chains and enforcing "unjustified extraterritorial jurisdiction" against Chinese entities. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in a summit preparatory call, told China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng the measures have “a chilling effect on global supply chains.” 


On May 2, China’s Ministry of Commerce also utilized for the first time Blocking Rules, first introduced in 2021, in response to U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designating five independent refineries for allegedly purchasing Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products. Separately, the National Reform and Development Commission issued an unprecedented order requiring Meta unwind its $2 billion acquisition of AI agent startup Manus, a Singapore company with Chinese founders.


The Trump administration also has pivoted to embrace restrictive actions. Last month, the U.S. Department of Commerce ordered leading chip equipment companies to stop some tool shipments to Hua Hong Semiconductor, China’s second-biggest chipmaker. U.S. lawmakers also advanced 20 export control measures aiming to further restrict access to advanced chipmaking equipment. 

On April 30, the Federal Communications Commission also advanced proposals to bar all Chinese labs from testing electronic ‌devices such as smartphones, cameras and computers for the U.S. and prohibit China Mobile, China Telecom, and China ​Unicom from operating data centers in the country, leading a Chinese government spokesperson to state the measures “undermine the hard-won stability of Sino-US economic and trade relations.” 


Taiwan remains a core issue for China. In December, the U.S. announced an $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, the biggest-ever U.S. weapons package for the island, but has not moved forward with additional sales. China wants the U.S. government to modify its language to oppose Taiwan independence. Foreign Minister Wang Yi told U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ahead of the summit that the Taiwan issue is "the biggest point of risk" for bilateral relations. 


What to Expect

The U.S. and Chinese governments are likely to deliver a series of modest commitments and intentions at the summit. The most significant outcome of the talks may be signaling on continued dialogue, additional meetings, and the importance of stabilizing ties. President Trump said in March he was looking forward to a reciprocal visit by Xi this year.


Summit announcements may include the following: 

  • Commitments by China for purchase of U.S. aircraft, agricultural products beyond the soybean purchases agreements announced at Busan, South Korea in October;

  • Commitments by China for additional purchases of U.S. energy products, including crude oil and liquified natural gas, which declined significantly in 2025 following the U.S. imposition of 125% tariffs. (Notably, purchase of refined energy products, led by petrochemical feedstock used for the plastics industry, has remained robust.)

  • Extension of the one-year Busan agreement on rare earths and critical minerals. The subject was discussed in March at the meetings in Paris between U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang. 

  • Agreement to explore the creation of a Board of Trade, a government-to-government mechanism promoted by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer that would help determine the types of nonsensitive goods the U.S. and China will trade with one another.  A parallel Board of Investment concept may be addressed. 

  • Other issues that may be addressed include security in the Persian Gulf, Taiwan, and mechanisms for regulation of artificial intelligence.


For more information, contact:


Matthew Miller: matthew@corpbridgeadvisors.com


 
 
 

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